Confidence meets its evidence

Fit a calibration parameter on one split, choose it using validation, then reveal the untouched final split.

Hypothesis and criterion

Name the expected effect, metric and what would count against the hypothesis.

Method and reproducibility

Record fixtures, source, version, parameters, units, controls and how cases are split.

Paired evidence

Case and split Baseline result Changed result Interpretation

Counterexample and revised design

Temperature can improve Brier score without changing any predicted class; calibration can fail again on a shifted population.

Record your new case and rerun the original cases after redesign.

Individual defence

Explain the mechanism, one exact result and what would overturn your conclusion.

Remaining uncertainty and handover

A few cases cannot establish population calibration. Final rows must remain hidden until the choice is locked.

Next test: _ . Project filename: _ . Work that is mine and tools I used: ____ .

Keep your work

Use fictional data. Download a resumable project before changing devices. On a shared device, turn remembering off and clear your work when finished.