Probe the signal, test the shortcut

Year 12 ยท Student investigation

Can a highly accurate probe be reading the wrong clue?

Keep an individual record even when you investigate in pairs. Record the exact settings, source and data split.

Predict before seeing the answer

Will the signal-plus-shortcut probe keep its training accuracy after the shortcut reverses?

Two comparisons

What did you change? What stayed the same? What did you notice?

Challenge your first explanation

Compare mean and covariance modes. Both sequence means are zero; verify why their paired relationships can still differ. Compare seeds 11, 23 and 47 with the same settings. Report every result and the range. Lock your final settings before opening seed 89; changing settings afterwards turns that check into development data.

Make and explain

A held-out confusion matrix, Brier score and explanation of what probe success does and does not establish.

Limit the claim

This activity can show _ . It cannot tell us _ . A new case I would test is ____ .

Use fictional data. Download or print your work before leaving.